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# OPEC+ Is Pumping More Oil Into a Market That's Getting More Dangerous to Ship Through
- URL: https://millionaire-insiders.ghost.io/opec-is-pumping-more-oil-into-a-market-thats-getting-more-dangerous-to-ship-through/
- Published: 2026-08-20T11:00:44.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-20T11:00:43.000Z
- Author: Daniel Whitmore

Crude oil climbed above $81 a barrel recently, up nearly 5% in a single week, even as OPEC+ announced plans to expand monthly production. That combination, rising prices alongside a coalition adding supply, only makes sense once you factor in what's driving the price move in the first place: a new blockade threat targeting Saudi Arabia's oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, on top of ongoing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz that still hasn't been resolved despite periods of apparent optimism.  
  
The scale of the supply risk here is real. Global oil supply is projected to decline by roughly 4.3 million barrels per day this year, around 4% of global output, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East threaten to push the market deeper into deficit. That's the kind of number that normally moves prices on its own, and OPEC+ adding barrels back into the market is at least partly an attempt to offset it.

### Two chokepoints, one region, compounding risk

Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb aren't interchangeable risks that simply add up in a straightforward way. Hormuz sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and is the passage point for a large share of Middle Eastern crude heading to global markets. Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern end of the Red Sea, is the route much of that same crude takes toward Europe and beyond once it clears the Gulf. A threat to either chokepoint alone would be significant. Threats to both simultaneously mean shippers and insurers are pricing risk across essentially the entire corridor that Middle Eastern oil has to pass through to reach the rest of the world, not just at a single bottleneck.  
  
That's part of why forecasters have kept nudging price estimates higher. The EIA projects Brent averaging around $85 a barrel in the third quarter, while JPMorgan's research puts the number closer to $86 for the same period, before easing toward $78 by year-end as some of the current tension presumably resolves. Both forecasts assume this elevated tension eventually eases. Neither assumes it resolves immediately.  
  
The gap between those quarterly numbers is itself informative. A roughly $8 decline priced in from the third-quarter peak to the year-end estimate implies forecasters expect meaningful de-escalation at some point, just not on a specific timeline anyone is confident enough to commit to. That kind of directional-but-vague forecast is typical when a market is pricing genuine geopolitical uncertainty rather than a well-understood supply and demand balance.

### Why OPEC+ is adding supply into this

Expanding production while prices climb might look counterintuitive, but it fits a pattern OPEC+ has followed before: using periods of geopolitically-driven price strength to regain market share that member countries gave up during prior periods of voluntary production cuts. Higher prices from chokepoint risk give the coalition room to add barrels without crashing the price outright, since the underlying supply threat provides a floor that pure OPEC+ output increases alone wouldn't.  
  
This is a genuinely different dynamic than OPEC+ raising output during a calm market, where added supply typically pushes prices down in a fairly predictable way. Right now, the chokepoint risk premium is large enough that incremental OPEC+ barrels are being absorbed without fully offsetting the geopolitical component of the price, which is part of why crude has kept climbing even as the group adds supply rather than restricts it.  
  
**Whitmore's Watchlist:** 
**USO** (United States Oil Fund): The most direct, liquid way to track crude price movement tied to this chokepoint risk.  
**XLE** (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund): Broader exposure to energy producers benefiting from elevated prices, independent of the specific chokepoint story.  
**BNO** (United States Brent Oil Fund): Tracks Brent specifically, the benchmark most directly exposed to Middle Eastern supply routes through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

### The risk that doesn't show up in any forecast

Every price forecast here carries an implicit assumption about how long the current tension lasts, and that's precisely the variable no model can price with real confidence. Iran and Oman still haven't reached an agreement on reopening Hormuz despite earlier signs a deal was close, which is a reminder that optimism around de-escalation has proven premature more than once already this year. A genuine resolution at either chokepoint would likely bring prices down faster than any gradual OPEC+ supply increase could on its own, while a further escalation at either point would do the opposite just as quickly.  
  
**Whitmore's Take**: Oil prices right now are being driven more by shipping route risk through two specific chokepoints than by the supply and demand fundamentals OPEC+ is actually adjusting. Worth watching Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb headlines specifically, since either one resolving or escalating further will likely move prices faster than the next OPEC+ production decision.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/e9/10/e9109ad9-55f9-4e96-a078-46af25115156/content/images/2026/08/oil-chokepoint-opec-2.jpg)

*Written by Daniel Whitmore* 
*Millionaire Insiders*